Urban Feet Running ClubCoach Dossier

Marathon Record • Race Forecast • Taper Script

Run Jersey City as the strongest, calmest version of yourself.

This third edition removes decorative illustration entirely. It uses your archived marathons, your current cycle, and your recovery signals to answer three questions: what your history proves, what your present block supports, and how to give yourself the best shot at a great race without manufacturing a miserable one.

You do not need to become someone new for this race. You need to trust the athlete your history already shows.

Proof first. Your past marathons are treated as evidence, not trivia.
Reality second. The current cycle is judged honestly, including where it is strong and where it is thin.
Execution last. The taper and race script are built to maximize performance without inviting a bad injury-risk decision.

UF

Urban Feet
Running Club

Central Park Saturdays
Coach-prepared race dossier
Sunday April 5, 2026

Best Result

3:22:59

Tokyo 2024

Next Race

3:38:30

primary call

Stretch

3:35:00

only with patience

Record Depth

6

completed marathons

Coach's premise: the fastest safe race and the wisest race are the same race. You do not earn 3:35 by straining early. You earn the chance at it by arriving at mile 20 with options.

The Message

What I want you to feel when you read this

You are not under-qualified for this start line. Hamburg, New York, Tokyo, Jersey City, New York again: those are not just old races. They are evidence. They show that when your preparation is honest and your head stays steady, you convert training into performance.

Your history is not asking you to panic into a breakthrough. It is asking you to do what good marathoners do: protect your taper, respect the opening miles, and let courage appear late rather than early.

That is the hopeful part. The path is not mysterious. Your best races did not come from force. They came from rhythm, patience, and control. The point of this document is to put you back in contact with that truth.

Calm early. Smooth middle. Brave late.

Historical Arc

Race Results Across the Archive

Preparation Balance

Run Miles Versus Cross-Training

Archive Table

Clean Comparison of Every Marathon Build in the Current Record

This table adds two things the earlier report was missing: average training pace across each 12-week cycle and an explicit cross-training load. Times use race-ready formatting, not decimal minutes.

Race	Result	12-Week Run Miles	Avg Weekly	Peak Week	Avg Training Pace	Cross-Training	18+ / 20+	Taper Sleep	Best Key Session
Hamburg 2023 2023-04-23	3:29:41 8:00/mi	400.5	33.4	53.8	8:34/mi	9h 38m 20 sessions	4 / 4	6.20 h score 60.9	13.46 mi @ 7:03/mi
NYC 2023 2023-11-05	3:27:22 7:55/mi	404.0	33.7	63.3	8:20/mi	12h 35m 21 sessions	5 / 2	6.76 h score 68.5	10.01 mi @ 6:55/mi
Tokyo 2024 2024-03-03	3:22:59 7:45/mi	447.4	37.3	52.3	8:45/mi	8h 44m 19 sessions	5 / 2	6.44 h score 65.6	6.23 mi @ 8:40/mi
NYC 2024 2024-11-03	3:48:37 8:44/mi	312.8	26.1	43.7	8:39/mi	13h 43m 15 sessions	1 / 0	6.60 h score 66.4	5.17 mi @ 8:18/mi
Jersey City 2025 2025-04-13	3:25:49 7:51/mi	413.2	34.4	43.1	8:30/mi	5h 36m 11 sessions	2 / 1	7.12 h score 70.6	13.32 mi @ 7:18/mi
NYC 2025 2025-11-02	3:27:05 7:54/mi	435.3	36.3	49.9	8:24/mi	14h 50m 20 sessions	4 / 3	6.54 h score 62.2	10.07 mi @ 7:15/mi
Jersey City 2026 2026-04-19	Projected 3:38:30 8:20/mi	273.6	22.8	38.9	8:26/mi	7h 04m 15 sessions	4 / 3	N/A score N/A	—

Interpretation

What the pattern means

Your best marathon in this record, Tokyo 2024, came from steadiness more than spectacle. That matters because it means your next breakthrough does not require drama.
Jersey City 2025 proves you can race very well off moderate mileage when the long-run work is specific and the taper lands cleanly.
NYC 2024 is the cautionary sample: lower mileage, fewer long runs, and a narrower margin. It was not a failure of character. It was a thinner runway.
Jersey City 2026 has the right late-cycle specificity. The missing ingredient relative to your very best cycles is durability, so the taper must protect you, not entertain you.

Forecast

Jersey City 2026

Primary call: 3:38 to 3:40.

Single-point estimate: 3:38:30.

Stretch ceiling: 3:35:00 if the taper restores you and the race remains under control through mile 20.

Protective floor: 3:43 to 3:46 if the day is heavy or the legs never fully clear.

3:35 Conditions

What has to be true

You do not leak effort in the first 10K.
You treat taper rest as part of training, not a threat to fitness.
You fuel early enough that the final hour is not underwritten by panic.
You are willing to let 3:35 go if the day says no, so you can still run the best possible race instead of a ruined one.

Race Script

How to race the day you want

0-10K	8:24-8:28/mi. Float. If others surge, let them pay for it later.
10K-Half	8:20-8:24/mi. Keep shoulders down and fueling automatic.
Half-20	Same pace only if the stride stays easy. If not, 8:25-8:30 is honorable and smart.
20-24	This is where 3:35 becomes either earned or impossible. Press only if you still feel in command.
24-Finish	Race the day you have, not the fantasy you wanted.

Why the document is structured this way

Evidence Behind the Tone

Proof before pressure. Your past successful races are placed first because self-efficacy is more useful when it is anchored to task-specific evidence. Source: meta-analytic review.
Specific cues over generic hype. The race plan uses concrete, repeated images and decisions because structured imagery practice improves athletic performance. Source: imagery practice meta-analysis.
Taper as a tool. The final two weeks cut volume on purpose because tapering improves endurance performance when it preserves freshness without abandoning sharpness. Sources: PLOS ONE review, Mujika review.
Firm, not punitive. The coaching voice avoids self-attack because athletes respond better when critique does not become fear of mistakes. Source: athlete self-compassion study.

Exact Weekly Mileage Matrix, Earlier Marathon Cycles

Week	Hamburg 2023	NYC 2023	Tokyo 2024	NYC 2024
T-12 2023-01-29	24.1	34.9	6.2	33.9
T-11 2023-02-05	28.7	29.6	21.9	29.4
T-10 2023-02-12	20.7	39.8	37.4	43.7
T-9 2023-02-19	43.8	21.5	36.8	24.4
T-8 2023-02-26	31.8	13.1	42.6	40.0
T-7 2023-03-05	51.7	40.5	36.8	36.7
T-6 2023-03-12	39.6	41.8	51.7	18.6
T-5 2023-03-19	53.8	48.0	51.7	26.0
T-4 2023-03-26	39.1	26.7	52.3	5.4
T-3 2023-04-02	33.3	63.3	44.1	18.0
T-2 2023-04-09	23.2	32.7	45.1	25.0
T-1 2023-04-16	10.6	12.2	20.8	11.7

Exact Weekly Mileage Matrix, Recent Cycles and Jersey City 2026

Week	JC 2025	NYC 2025	JC 2026
T-12 2025-01-19	30.7	31.4	10.5
T-11 2025-01-26	42.4	42.9	24.3
T-10 2025-02-02	43.1	37.4	20.5
T-9 2025-02-09	41.6	39.7	38.9
T-8 2025-02-16	42.0	19.7	26.6
T-7 2025-02-23	24.2	41.6	14.0
T-6 2025-03-02	39.7	40.7	30.1
T-5 2025-03-09	30.0	48.5	38.9
T-4 2025-03-16	31.8	49.9	33.8
T-3 2025-03-23	18.4	22.7	36.0
T-2 2025-03-30	42.1	32.7	0.0
T-1 2025-04-06	27.1	27.9	0.0

From Today Forward

Taper Plan Starting Sunday, April 5

This plan is tuned for the best overlap between ambition and restraint. It is designed to maximize your chances of finding the high end of your range without manufacturing a bad race through panic, junk fatigue, or false bravado.

Date	Session	Coach's Intent
Sun Apr 5	Off or 30-40 min walk	Let the last 20-miler settle. Mobility and food are the training today.
Mon Apr 6	4 easy miles	Keep it almost too easy.
Tue Apr 7	5 easy miles + 4 x 20 sec strides	Wake up the legs, do not challenge them.
Wed Apr 8	3-4 easy miles or off	Choose rest if sleep or soreness is compromised.
Thu Apr 9	2 mi warmup, 3 x 1 mi at marathon pace, 1-2 mi cooldown	This is your last reminder workout, not a proving ground.
Fri Apr 10	4 easy miles	Recover on purpose.
Sat Apr 11	8-10 miles easy, final 2 at marathon pace only if smooth	Stop while you still feel springy.
Sun Apr 12	Off or 3 recovery miles	Bank freshness.
Mon Apr 13	4-5 easy miles + 4 strides	Light cadence, low stress.
Tue Apr 14	5-6 miles total with 2 x 1 mi at marathon pace	Rehearse, do not rehearse anxiety.
Wed Apr 15	Off or 3 easy miles	Sleep and carbohydrates matter more than miles now.
Thu Apr 16	4 easy miles	Everything should feel controlled.
Fri Apr 17	3 easy miles + 4 short strides	Shut it down early.
Sat Apr 18	Off or 20 min shakeout	Stay loose, stay calm, do not chase reassurance.
Sun Apr 19	Race day	First gel early. Calm early. Smooth middle. Brave late.

Fueling the Taper

Diet Section: How to Eat from Now Through Race Morning

The food plan should make the race easier, not more dramatic. The principles here are conservative and proven: keep meals familiar, gradually shift the final two days toward carbohydrates, and show up to the start line with full glycogen stores and a settled stomach.

April 5 to April 15

Normal Taper Eating

Do not start the week with a crash diet, aggressive fasting, or a “cleanse.” Your body needs stable intake while training load falls.
Aim for a carbohydrate-forward plate at each meal: rice, potatoes, oats, pasta, bread, fruit, or cereal plus a normal serving of protein.
Keep protein steady at every meal so the legs repair while mileage drops.
Use vegetables normally early in the week, but keep them cooked and familiar rather than giant raw salads.
Hydrate consistently. Pale yellow urine is a better target than chugging water on random days.

April 16 to April 18

Carbohydrate Loading

For the final 36 to 48 hours, bias meals strongly toward carbohydrates. Sports nutrition guidance generally supports about 7 to 10 g of carbohydrate per kilogram of body weight per day for glycogen loading before endurance events.
Choose lower-fiber, lower-fat versions of foods you already tolerate well: white rice, pasta, bagels, sourdough, pancakes, oats, bananas, applesauce, potatoes, pretzels, sports drink.
Reduce “healthy but bulky” foods in the final two days: giant salads, beans, heavy cruciferous vegetables, greasy takeout, very spicy meals.
Keep alcohol minimal or zero. It does not help your nerves and it can sabotage sleep and hydration.

Race Morning

Breakfast and In-Race Fuel

Eat breakfast 2 to 4 hours before the start. A useful range is 1 to 4 g carbohydrate per kilogram, depending on what your stomach tolerates.
Keep breakfast simple and familiar: bagel with honey, oatmeal with banana, toast, rice, applesauce, sports drink. Avoid high fat and high fiber.
Take your first gel early, around 20 to 30 minutes into the race, not when you are already fading.
Then fuel on a schedule. For a marathon, a realistic target is 30 to 60 g carbohydrate per hour, and toward 60 to 75 g/h only if you have practiced that amount well.
Drink steadily in small amounts and include sodium through sports drink or gels if the day is warm or you are a salty sweater.

Simple Meal Pattern

What this can look like in practice

Breakfast: oatmeal or bagel, banana, small yogurt, coffee if normal for you.
Lunch: rice bowl, chicken or tofu, cooked vegetables, bread or fruit.
Dinner: pasta or potatoes, lean protein, cooked vegetables, bread.
Snacks: pretzels, cereal, banana, applesauce, toast, sports drink.
Last 48 hours: less roughage, more starch, more consistency.

Nutrition Basis

Why this section looks this way

Endurance taper nutrition is built around topping off glycogen, not dieting. Consensus guidance supports carbohydrate loading in the final 36 to 48 hours before long endurance events.
Pre-race breakfast ranges of 1 to 4 g/kg carbohydrate in the 1 to 4 hours before exercise are standard sports nutrition guidance.
During-race carbohydrate guidance commonly starts around 30 to 60 g/h for prolonged endurance exercise, with higher amounts reserved for athletes who have trained their gut to handle it.

Urban Feet Coach Dossier - Third Edition